AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybean Futures Finish with Gains

December 09, 2019

Front month bean futures finished in the black, with gains from 7 1/4 to 8 cents. Soybean meal futures were 70 cents/ton lower at the close. Soy oil futures closed with a gain of 35 points. Soybean exports from the USDA’s weekly report came in at 1.327 MMT for the week ending 12/05. That is a decrease of 248,707 MT wk/wk, but that was a 43.22% increase from the same week last year. The USDA showed that China was the top destination holding a 62.6% share of shipments for the week, with Bangladesh (12.87%) and Japan (9.27%) coming in at 2nd and 3rd respectively. Wire reports have China buying as much as 300,000 MT of US soybeans for Jan-Feb delivery following last week’s Chinese tariff shift. Pre-WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled at 474 mbu. Average estimates for world carryout remained firm with the Nov. WASDE, at 95.9 MMT. FOB prices for soybeans have America at $347/ ton with Argentina and Brazil at $357 and $359 respectively.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.11 3/4, up 8 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.25 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.38 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $296.70, down $0.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.36, up $0.35

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Still Rallying

December 09, 2019

Soybeans continue the rally from late last week with nearby futures making midday gains of 8 1/4 to 9 cents. Soybean meal futures are 60 cents/ton higher at midday. Soy oil futures are up by 53 points so far. Soybean exports from the USDA’s weekly report came in at 1.327 MMT for the week ending 12/05. That is a decrease of 248,707 MT wk/wk, but is a 43.22% increase from the same week last year. Wire reports have China buying as much as 300,000 MT of US soybeans for Jan-Feb delivery following last week’s Chinese tariff shift. Pre-WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled at 474 mbu. It looks to us like the market is now trading a smaller number with this rally. Average estimates for world carryout remained firm with the Nov. WASDE, at 95.9 MMT. The CFTC report from Friday afternoon showed managed money was net short in beans as of 12/3. Meal spec traders were net short, whereas managed money was net long in bean oil. FOB prices for soybeans have America at $347/ ton with Argentina and Brazil at $357 and $359 respectively.

Jan 20 Soybeans are at $8.98 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $9.12 3/4, up 9 cents,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.39 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal is at $298.00, up $0.60

Dec 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.54, up $0.53

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 2 to 3 Higher Overnight

December 09, 2019

Soybeans continue the rally from late last week with overnight gains of 2 to 3 cents per bushel. Soybeans were up 4 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents on Friday, resulting in a weekly gain of 12 3/4 cents. Soybean meal futures were $2.10/ton lower on Friday but still ended the week with a $6.20/ton gain. Soy oil futures are up 72 points, and 64 points higher wk/wk. Pre-WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled at 474 mbu. The Nov. WASDE had had ending stocks at 475 mbu. Stats Canada reported Canadian canola production of 18.649 MMT, down 8.3% from last year. The CFTC report from Friday afternoon showed managed money adding to their net short in beans for the second week in a row. Soybeans Spec funds sold a net 157,448 contracts over the last 4 weeks, which is the largest 4 week bear move on record. Meal spec traders were 43,910 contracts net short, which was the 3rd consecutive week expanding their position. As for bean oil, managed money was still net long, which brings their streak to 12 weeks of holding a long position on net.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market News and Commentary

December 06, 2019

Soybeans were up again on Friday with the nearby futures gaining 4 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents. That was enough to push futures to a weekly gain of 12 3/4 cents. Soybean meal futures were $2.10/ton lower on Friday but still ended the week with a $6.20/ton gain. Soy oil futures are up 72 points, and 64 points higher wk/wk. WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled shown at 474 mbu. The Nov. WASDE had USDA forecasts for ending stocks at 475 mbu. Stats Canada reported Canadian canola production at 18.649 MMT, down 8.3% from last year. The CFTC report from this afternoon showed managed money was net short beans, for the second week in a row. . Meal spec traders were shown at 43,910 contracts net short, which was the 3rd consecutive week expanding their position further short. As for bean oil, managed money was still net long, which brings their streak to 12 weeks of holding a long position on net.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 3/4, up 5 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $297.40, down $2.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.01, up $0.72

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Beans Make Midday Gains

December 06, 2019

Soybeans are up again on Friday, the nearby futures are 5 1/4 to 5 3/4 cents higher so far. Soybean meal futures is $1.90/ton lower. Soy oil futures are up by 65 points at midday. China has issued tariff exemptions on American soybeans. Previously Chinese importers who applied for tariff exemptions were required to pay the tariff before receiving reimbursement, and this new announcement will remove that step. The announcement left out concrete numbers, leaving confusion on market implications, with the consensus being it was intended as a good faith move ahead of Dec 15th scheduled US tariff hikes. Census October soybean exports were 218.43 mbu, soybean meal shipments in October were an all time high for the month, at 1.033 MMT. The Export Sales reported showed bookings at 683,783 MT through the week ending 11/28. The latest data pushed the accumulated shipments to China up to 6.581 MMT.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.90, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.04, up 5 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $297.60, down $1.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.94, up $0.65

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com