Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed Jan 03, 4:49PM CST

Corn futures closed the Wednesday session with most contracts steady to fractionally lower. The weekly EIA report will be out on Thursday morning. Last week’s report showed production at 1.09 million bpd for the week of 12/22. Total export commitments of corn are 54% of the USDA full year projection, vs. 64% last year and the average of 57% for this date. Corn exports out of Brazil during December totaled 3.99 MMT according to the country’s trade ministry. That is up 13.84% from November and nearly 4 times as large as December 2016. Soil moisture is expected to decline in southern Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay over the next week, driven by higher temps and limited rainfall during early pollination.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.53, down 1/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.61 1/4, unch,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, down 1/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.77, down 1/4 cent

Soybean futures settled the day with most contracts 2 to 4 1/2 cents in the green. Meal futures were up 90 cents/ton in the nearby January contract. Soy oil was 38 point higher in the front month. Soybean export commitments from the US are 67% of the USDA projection, compared to 82% for the average and last year. This has traders expecting USDA to cut the export forecast on January 12. Argentine planting continues to lag in BA and La Pampa due to dry soils and high temps. Argentina has begun the phased unwinding of their soybean export tariff announced back in 2016, dropping it to 29.5%. Brazil’s exports of soybeans during December totaled 2.36 MMT according to their Trade Ministry. That is slightly higher than November and nearly 4 times larger than the same month in 2016.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.59 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.68 3/4, up 4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.79 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.92, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $314.40, up $0.90,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $33.76, up $0.38

Wheat futures ended the day with most CBT and MPLS contracts 1 to 2 1/2 cents in the green, as KC was 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher. The March KC contract hit a 6 week high this morning. Frigid temperatures across the Plains this past weekend are supportive, but impacts from the sub-zero temps won’t be fully known until Spring. The sharp drop in Kansas wheat condition ratings from November to December caught the trade by surprise, with 37% good/ex at the end of December vs. 51% a month earlier. This was before the freeze. US wheat export commitments are 73% of the USDA export projection, vs. the average of 78% and last year’s 79%. Ukraine grain exports from July to December totaled 21.36 MMT according to their Ag Ministry, which is 10% lower than the same time the previous year. Of that total export amount, 11.2 MMT consisted of wheat.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.36, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.41, up 6 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.19 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures saw mixed trade on Wednesday, with nearby Feb down 40 cents and most back months higher. Feeder futures were also mixed with Jan 15 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index on January 1 was $155.90, up 57 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were sharply higher again on Wednesday. Choice boxes averaged $3.48 higher than Tuesday, with Select boxes up $2.59 per cwt. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter is 227,000 head. That is 18,000 head more than last week, but 16,000 fewer than the same week last year due to smaller numbers on both Monday and Tuesday. This morning’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 388 head offered.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $122.950, down $0.400,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.375, up $0.275,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $115.350, up $0.175,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.375, down $0.150

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.825, down $0.050

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.975, up $0.050

Lean hog futures were mostly higher on Wednesday with front month Feb up 32.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/29 was up 51 cents at $62.23. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 43 cents higher in this afternoon’s report at $78.76. The belly was the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.65 to $60.54. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 907,000 head. That is up 86,000 head from last week and 22,000 larger than the same week last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $71.050, up $0.325,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $75.425, up $0.575

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.975, up $0.175

Cotton futures posted gains of 54 to 61 points in most nearby contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar was up 297 points on the day. The weekly Export Sales report is delayed until Friday due to the New Year’s Holiday. The International Cotton Advisory Committee trimmed their expected world cotton ending stocks 0.25 MMT to 18.98 MMT. Most of that reduction came from a 0.31 MMT cut in projected world production. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was increased 262 points to 70.62 cents/lb on Thursday. The Cotlook A Index for January 2was 25 points lower at 89.35.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 78.110, up 61 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 78.260, up 49 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 78.680, up 54 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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