Morning Grains Report 01/03/18
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Wed Jan 03, 11:35AM CST

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 04, 2018 261 Dec 29, 2017
SOYBEAN January Jan. 04, 2018 2 Oct 23, 2017

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 28, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/28/2017 12/21/2017 12/29/2016 TO DATE TO DATE

BARLEY 0 269 0 18,182 28,785
CORN 683,898 619,893 638,577 10,536,536 17,049,258
FLAXSEED 0 0 245 4,673 12,835
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 200 700 7,187 9,199
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 122,915 85,546 65,299 1,640,608 1,788,014
SOYBEANS 1,139,436 1,283,200 1,588,840 28,317,221 33,002,359
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 274,506 519,541 407,032 14,530,209 15,537,849
Total 2,220,755 2,508,649 2,700,693 55,054,616 67,428,299
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Alerts History
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 2.58 MLN 60-KG BAGS OF COFFEE IN DECEMBER VS 2.70 MLN BAGS IN NOVEMBER AND 2.91 MLN BAGS YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 2.36 MLN T SOYBEANS IN DECEMBER VS 2.14 MLN T IN NOVEMBER AND 0.65 MLN T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 0.67 MLN T SOY MEAL IN DECEMBER VS 1.07 MLN T IN NOVEMBER AND 1.01 MLN T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 46,467 T SOY OIL IN DECEMBER VS 73,500 T IN NOVEMBER AND 66,157 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 1.53 MLN T RAW SUGAR IN DECEMBER VS 1.83 MLN T IN NOVEMBER AND 2.09 MLN T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 1,195,494 T PULP IN DECEMBER VS 1,087,983 T IN NOVEMBER AND 1,260,750 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 43,923 T PORK IN DECEMBER VS 45,833 T IN NOVEMBER AND 43,047 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 108,569 T BEEF IN DECEMBER VS 116,172 T IN NOVEMBER AND 87,259 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 295,641 T POULTRY IN DECEMBER VS 297,665 T IN NOVEMBER AND 326,829 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 32.77 MLN T IRON ORE IN DECEMBER VS 34.15 MLN T IN NOVEMBER AND 35.12 MLN T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 3.03 MLN T CRUDE OIL IN DECEMBER VS 2.53 MLN T IN NOVEMBER AND 2.63 MLN T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 3,994,314 T CORN IN DECEMBER VS 3,519,945 T IN NOVEMBER AND 1,005,765 T YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
• 02-Jan-2018 11:10:55 AM – BRAZIL EXPORTS 65.18 MLN LITERS ETHANOL IN DECEMBER VS 134.79 MLN LTR IN NOVEMBER AND 70.19 MLN LTR YR AGO – TRADE MINISTRY
See Brazil’s commodities exports for December –
02-Jan-2018 11:10:56 AM
SAO PAULO, 2 Jan (Reuters) – Brazil’s Trade Ministry published on Tuesday export data for the month of December. See the table below for the main commodities exports:
Commodity December 2017 November 2017 December 2016
COFFEE(60 KG BAG) 2,580,389 2,695,749 2,912,716
CRUDE OIL (TNS) 3,029,364 2,527,040 2,627,085
ETHANOL (LTR) 65,176,351 134,793,128 70,190,801
SOYBEANS (TNS) 2,355,636 2,142,729 653,098
IRON ORE 32,766,361 34,151,971 35,116,428
FROZEN ORANGE JUICE (TNS) 51,295 60,485 47,546
NON-FROZEN ORANGE JUICE (TNS) 159,715 123,146 154,807
SUGAR RAW (TNS) 1,526,213 1,834,579 2,087,582
(Reporting by Sao Paulo Newsroom; +55 11 5644-7500)

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher again on Friday on reports of very cold temperatures in the Great Plains. The cold has likely damaged some crops in the Great Plains, and mostly in Kansas. It also remains dry in most of the Great Plains. The crops in the region are not well established, and the cold has come with little snow cover to protect the crops. The state departments of agriculture downgraded the Great Plains Winter Wheat crops in monthly reports released last night. Only 37% of the Kansas crop is rated good to excellent, and only 15% of the Oklahoma crop is rated good, with none of it called excellent. Colorado crops are rated 48% good to excellent. Less concern is heard about Midwest crops. It has been just as cold, but the crops should be in better condition due to some snow. The daily charts show that Winter Wheat trends are turning up. The weekly charts show that winter wheat price trends are sideways and that both Winter Wheat markets are in longer term sideways trends. Minneapolis weekly charts also show sideways trends and that Minneapolis futures are holding just above some important support areas. The market is also noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. In fact, a drought has developed in the region and could become serious. The crop has not established itself well due to the dry weather. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the world Wheat offer and price. Russia is still exporting a lot of Wheat and has said that it expects another very big crop.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend too much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 462 and 486 March. Support is at 428, 424, and 421 March, with resistance at 443, 445, and 450 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 446, 462, and 464 March. Support is at 427, 424, and 418 March, with resistance at 441, 442, and 451 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 613, 611, and 608 March, and resistance is at 622, 625, and 632 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices closed lower on what appeared to be mostly speculative selling, but perhaps some commercial selling as well. The charts show that prices for the March contract are near the November lows, and there does not seem to be a good reason around for the prices to go lower. Futures market fundamentals have not really changed, but traders are leaving the market as the open interest has been dropping. The situation for Rice remains somewhat bullish at this time. Mercosur countries have had less to offer, and the US has benefitted from the reduced competition. Year end export sales have not been strong, but export sales were much improved last week due to increased buying from Asian countries. Futures remain undervalued in relationship to the US domestic cash market, but domestic cash markets are reported quiet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below too much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1170 and 1142 March. Support is at 1171, 1165, and 1163 March, with resistance at 1180, 1192, and 1195 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 3
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.62 9.95 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.23 10.31 0.00
Brokens 9.42 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and chart trends appear to be turning up on the daily charts. There are hopes for increased Corn demand from the export market due to cheap prices, and ethanol demand remains good. The export sales report last week was strong. Ideas are that the current cold weather can create additional Feed demand as more Feed is needed for weight gain in the extreme cold and as some Winter Wheat in the region was lost due to Winter kill. The trade continues to monitor the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some light showers were reported Argentina over the weekend. Forecasts for this week are mostly hot and dry. Some crop losses are increasingly possible and the La Nina conditions imply short soil moisture conditions for most of the growing season. Planting is late this year due to the dry weather, but has been rapid in the last couple of weeks. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. They could cover part of this position this week and were the best buyers in the market yesterday. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down due to the weaker futures prices. Not much selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 351, 349, and 346 December, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 239, 236, and 233 March, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 253 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher again. Speculators were on both sides of the market, but the funds were buyers. Speculative short covering and ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather remain features of the market. Speculators remain very short in Soybeans and Soybean Meal and could now cover at least part of these sales. It has been hot and dry in southern Brazil and Argentina areas, although some light showers were reported in some of the important growing areas in Cordoba over the weekend. Forecasts for this week call for drier and hotter conditions again. US prices are now cheap enough that China is buying much more from the US, and it might continue to buy depending on the growing conditions the rest of the year in southern South America. Brazil has been able to capture more business that otherwise would have gone to the US due to the huge crop last year. However, US Soybeans are very well priced right now and demand news over the last couple of weeks has improved. Soybean Oil is expecting to see increased demand as the tariffs on imports from Argentina and Indonesia for vegetable oils and bio fuels becomes effective. Higher petroleum prices are also a support factor with all of the political problems in Venezuela and now Iran.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 963, 955, and 950 March, and resistance is at 970, 976, and 979 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 315.00, and 312.00 March, and resistance is at 319.00, 322.00, and 326.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3330, 3300, and 3270 March, with resistance at 3370, 3390, and 3400 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday despite a stronger Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. Canola rallied on Malaysia and the US future prices and the ongoing dryer than normal weather in Argentina and southern Brazil that might hurt yields and production potential in affected areas. It remains very cold in the Prairies and farmers are not willing sellers. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest is over and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was sharply higher on good export demand. Speculators appeared to be the best buyers as chart trends turned up. Recent export data from the private surveyors showed that exports were above month ago levels for the first time in several months. Ideas are that production could be as strong as in any month in the last couple of years. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 485.00 March. Support is at 490.00, 485.00, and 484.00 January, with resistance at 496.00, 498.00, and 500.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2510, 2490, and 2450 March, with resistance at 2560, 2590, and 2610 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Very cold with some chances for Snow from Thursday to Sunday.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 42 March 225 March 50 March 35 March minus 9 Jan
February 43 March 50 March 35 March
March 43 March 55 March 3-Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
January minus 20 March
February 73 March minus 21 March
March minus 22 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 2
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 468.70 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.80 up 2.10
2 Can 487.80 up 2.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 516.80 up 2.10
2 Can 503.80 up 2.10
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 221.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 222.00 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Dave Sims, cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 655.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 662.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 672.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 672.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 657.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 665.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 675.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 680.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 675.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 657.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 630.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,550 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 308.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0190)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,424 lots, or 5.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,020 3,065 3,020 3,052 3,052 3,054 2 1,406 7,588
Mar-18 3,138 3,149 3,130 3,133 3,138 3,138 0 2,068 10,264
May-18 3,639 3,675 3,631 3,659 3,635 3,652 17 134,428 233,774
Jul-18 – – – 3,681 3,681 3,681 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,709 3,734 3,697 3,718 3,696 3,713 17 2,452 14,942
Nov-18 3,703 3,774 3,703 3,774 3,764 3,738 -26 4 4
Jan-19 3,779 3,808 3,779 3,799 3,770 3,797 27 50 1,192
Mar-19 – – – 3,789 3,783 3,789 6 0 6
May-19 3,871 3,899 3,871 3,892 3,867 3,886 19 16 58
Corn
Turnover: 604,682 lots, or 11.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,820 1,850 1,820 1,850 1,751 1,840 89 2,104 8,294
Mar-18 1,801 1,810 1,798 1,810 1,784 1,803 19 8,510 16,480
May-18 1,837 1,856 1,837 1,853 1,827 1,848 21 540,304 1,060,642
Jul-18 1,839 1,844 1,837 1,842 1,824 1,840 16 290 1,002
Sep-18 1,803 1,817 1,803 1,814 1,800 1,813 13 52,480 271,968
Nov-18 1,804 1,812 1,804 1,811 1,800 1,810 10 994 782
Soymeal
Turnover: 701,614 lots, or 19.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 2,850 2,860 2,830 2,831 2,853 2,842 -11 9,942 1,006
Mar-18 2,834 2,842 2,822 2,827 2,834 2,832 -2 12,720 4,364
May-18 2,767 2,783 2,766 2,773 2,768 2,774 6 600,912 2,020,708
Jul-18 2,785 2,788 2,778 2,779 2,772 2,779 7 1,312 750
Aug-18 2,760 2,767 2,751 2,766 2,759 2,760 1 20 138
Sep-18 2,761 2,777 2,760 2,769 2,762 2,770 8 76,360 290,254
Nov-18 2,775 2,782 2,775 2,775 2,770 2,779 9 340 584
Dec-18 2,811 2,811 2,746 2,758 2,727 2,778 51 8 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 246,152 lots, or 13.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,080 5,146 5,080 5,146 5,080 5,122 42 1,786 4,552
Feb-18 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 0
Mar-18 – – – 5,244 5,244 5,244 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,310 5,326 5,310 -16 0 24
May-18 5,320 5,338 5,296 5,320 5,296 5,318 22 228,352 476,372
Jun-18 5,396 5,396 5,396 5,396 5,354 5,396 42 2 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,316 5,276 5,316 40 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,332 5,292 5,332 40 0 2
Sep-18 5,348 5,370 5,338 5,352 5,330 5,350 20 16,012 62,718
Oct-18 – – – 5,290 5,272 5,290 18 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,332 5,314 5,332 18 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,382 5,382 5,382 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 231,842 lots, or 13.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,338 5,400 5,338 5,400 5,330 5,380 50 900 13,682
Mar-18 5,468 5,486 5,450 5,462 5,464 5,474 10 42 66
May-18 5,780 5,792 5,760 5,778 5,766 5,774 8 213,594 865,796
Jul-18 – – – 5,768 5,768 5,768 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 5,832 5,780 5,832 52 0 10
Sep-18 5,920 5,940 5,916 5,926 5,920 5,926 6 17,306 64,444
Nov-18 – – – 6,014 6,014 6,014 0 0 12
Dec-18 – – – 6,056 6,056 6,056 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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