FOMC Minutes Today
Alan Bush of ADM Investor Services - InsideFutures.com - Wed Jan 03, 9:01AM CST

January 3, 2018

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures kicked off 2018 on a strong note yesterday as signs of quickening economic activity around the globe encouraged risk-on sentiment among investors.

Additional gains are likely due to optimism that the new tax law in the U.S. will benefit corporations, the strengthening global economy, solid corporate earnings and the still relatively low interest rate environment.

The 9:00 central time December Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is expected to be 58 and the 9:00 November construction spending report is anticipated to show a .6% increase.

Washington is gearing up for a government funding battle with a January 19 deadline.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

CURRENCY FUTURES

After the U.S. dollar fell to a four month low yesterday, there is some recovery today.

Yesterday, euro currency futures advanced to their highest level since December 2014 on the belief that the European Central Bank will start to wind down its stimulus program later this year.

However, the euro is lower today in spite of news that Germany's jobless rate fell to a record low.

The jobless rate was 5.5 % in December, while the previous months rate was revised lower to the same level. Also, the number of unemployed plunged by 29,000 last month, which is more than twice as much as the median forecast.

The Canadian dollar is a little lower in spite of higher crude oil prices.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

At 1:00 the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes of its December 12-13 policy meeting.

At the December meeting officials voted to hike their benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 1.25% and 1.5%. In addition, they predicted three 25 basis point rate increases for 2018.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMCs March 21 policy meeting is 57%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

Futures are likely to work lower in the longer term, especially at the long end of the curve, as growth in the global economy accelerates.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 18 S&P 500

Support 2688.00 Resistance 2703.00

March 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 91.400 Resistance 91.930

March 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.20530 Resistance 1.21310

March 18 Japanese Yen

Support .89190 Resistance .89610

March 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .79770 Resistance .80170

March 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7795 Resistance .7855

March 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 151^16 Resistance 152^16

February 18 Gold

Support 1311.0 Resistance 1327.0

March 18 Copper

Support 3.2450 Resistance 3.2900

February 18 Crude Oil

Support 60.15 Resistance 61.33

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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