Whole Milk Powder - Oceania
USDA - Thu Nov 09, 9:19AM CST
MD_DA127                                                         
DA                                                               
MD DA127 Whole Milk Powder - Oceania                             

MADISON, WI.  November 09, 2017 (REPORT 45)                      

OCEANIA                                                          
INFORMATION GATHERED  10/30/2017 - 11/10/2017                    
U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON, FOB PORT                            

WHOLE MILK POWDER (WMP):   

	Whole milk powder prices in Oceania weakened for the third 
consecutive reporting period. This is generating concern as to 
potential spillover to milk prices. Weaker exports are most often 
mentioned as a factor.
       January-September NZ WMP exports, 887,287 MT, decreased 1.2 
percent from the same period one year earlier, according to Eucolait. 
The range of monthly percentage changes in cumulative export volumes 
varies from -11.8 percent in January, to +1.1 percent in July. Export 
volumes and primary destinations are shown in the following table:

                           NZ WMP Exports
                           Main Three Destinations 
                           January-September 2017 
 
Destination                Quantity(MT)   Percent of Total  
China                      226,629               30.1 
Algeria                     77,179                8.7             
UAE                         74,471                8.4  

       January-September Australia WMP exports, 32,720 MT, decreased 
24.6 percent from the same period one year earlier, according to 
Eucolait. The range of monthly percentage changes in cumulative 
export volumes varies from -24.6 percent in August, to +14.6 percent 
in February. Export volumes and primary destinations are shown in the 
following table: 
                                                                          Australia WMP Exports
                           Main Three Destinations 
                           January-September 2017 
 
Destination                Quantity(MT)   Percent of Total  
China                      8,728                 25.4 
Sri Lanka                  5,060                 14.7        
Singapore                  4,448                 13.0
       January-September China WMP imports, 392,970 MT, increased 15.0 
percent from the same period one year earlier, according to Eucolait. 
The range of monthly percentage changes in cumulative import volumes 
varies from -10.0 percent in January, to +15.0 percent in September. 
Import volumes and primary origins are shown in the following table:
           
                            China WMP Imports
                            Main Three Origins
                            January-September 2017 
 
Origin                      Quantity(MT)   Percent of Total  
New Zealand                 369,345               94.0
Australia                     7,225                1.8
France                        6,868                1.8

       At GDT Event 199 on November 7, the WMP all contracts price, 
$2,852, decreased 5.5 percent. The December contract, $2,984, 
decreased 3.0 percent. 
       This was an unwelcome GDT outcome and not completely expected. 
Lower than expected demand from China is being cited as a reason for 
the outcome. With four of the last five GDT events resulting in lower 
WMP all contracts prices, there is considerable concern over the 
unexpected record for WMP. Prices are now below the rule of thumb 
$3,000 which is viewed as at least keeping WMP decently profitable.

                                                                 
26% BUTTERFAT:                           2,800 - 2,975           

0930c eric.graf@ams.usda.gov 
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy
Dairy Market News database portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-
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