AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

May 22, 2017

Soybean futures are showing gains of mostly 6 to 6 1/4 cents on Monday. July 17 meal was up $1.70, with soy oil 6 points higher in the front month. The Crop progress report is expected to show nearly 55% of the US soybean acres were planted as of Sunday. US export inspections for soybeans were reported at 348,535 MT this morning, up 22.52 % from last week and nearly 4 times as large vs. the same week a year ago. The COT report showed Managed money spec funds adding 2,188 contracts to their net short position, taking it to 36,523 contracts as of Tuesday. While there were some large numbers floating around for Brazilian farmer sales, one source is still estimating that only 55% of the crop has been sold.US FOB export prices are within $1 per MT of Argentine origin, with Brazilian supplies another $1 higher.These are close enough that export market share becomes a function of freight costs and acquisition costs for the beans in the interior.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.59, up 6 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.60 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.58 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.58, up 6 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $308.70, up $1.70

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.10, up $0.06

Soybeans

May 22, 2017

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning after they settled 7 to 8 1/4 cents higher on Friday. July lost 1.04% for the week. Front month meal was down 50 cents, with July 17 soy oil up 60 points. The COT report showed Managed money spec funds adding 2,188 contracts to their net short position, taking it to 36,523 contracts as of Tuesday. While there were some large numbers floating around for Brazilian farmer sales, one source is still estimating that only 55% of the crop has been sold. US FOB export prices are within $1 per MT of Argentine origin, with Brazilian supplies another $1 higher. These are close enough that export market share becomes a function of freight costs and acquisition costs for the beans in the interior.

Soybeans

May 19, 2017

Soybean futures settled 7 to 8 1/4 cents higher on Friday, with a bounce back in the Brazilian Real. Over the course of the week, July lost just 1.04%. Front month meal was down 50 cents, with July 17 soy oil up 60 points. The COT report showed Managed money spec funds adding 2,188 contracts to their net short position, with a current position of 36,523 contracts as of Tuesday. A reported near 2 MMT of corn and soybeans were sold by producers in Brazil on Thursday, compared to the typical daily average of 200,000 MT. A 7% price spike (equivalent to about 67 cents per bushel if US futures had not sold off) gets your attention when you are lugging a lot of old crop inventory! Estimates of soybeans sold for export during the Real selloff are 1 to 1.5 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans settled at $9.53, up 8 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans settled at $9.54 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans settled at $9.52 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans settled at $9.51 3/4, up 7 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal settled at $307.00, down $0.50,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil settled at $33.04, up $0.60

Soybeans

May 19, 2017

Soybean futures are currently 8 1/2 to 10 cents higher in a dead cat bounce after Thursday’s falling prices. Front month meal is $1.10 higher, with July 17 soy oil up 51 points. Soybean commitments for export for the current marketing year are 22.2% above last year at this time. Export commitments as a percent of the USDA projection are now at 103%, compared to the average of 98% and 92% last year. BAGE reports that an estimated 74.7% of the Argentine soybean crop is out of the field. A reported near 2 MMT of corn and soybeans were sold by producers in Brazil on Thursday, compared to the typical daily average of 200,000 MT. A 7% price spike gets your attention when you are lugging a lot of old crop inventory! Estimates of soybeans sold for export during the Real selloff are 1 to 1.5 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.54 3/4, up 10 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.56 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.54, up 9 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.53 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $308.60, up $1.10

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.95, up $0.51

Soybeans

May 19, 2017

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents higher in a dead cat bounce after falling 23 to 31 cents on Thursday. Beans were pressured by the lower Real. The Real was down as much as 7.6% before profit taking brought it off the bottom. Brazilian producers were heavy cash grain sellers to take advantage of the price spike. Front month meal was down $7.80, with July 17 soy oil 71 points lower. US soybean exports for the week ending May 11 rose 19.8% wk/wk and 51.8% yr/yr at 345,415 MT. Soybean commitments for the current marketing year are 22.2% above last year at this time. Export commitments as a percent of the USDA projection are now at 103%, compared to the average of 98% and 92% last year. Soymeal shipments of 166,627 MT increased 32.5% since last week. BAGE reports that an estimated 74.7% of the Argentine soybean crop is out of the field.


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