AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

June 23, 2017

Soybean futures closed steady to 2 1/4 cents lower in the back months as July settled positive for the first time this week. On the week that contract lost 3.67%. July 17 soy meal was down 20 cents, with soy oil 6 points higher in the front month. A survey by Bloomberg shows traders projecting soybean stocks on June 1 to increase 12.73% yr/yr to 983 million bushels. Estimates ranged from 803 mbu to 1.119 bbu. The CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money had a net short position of -87,140 contracts in soybean futures and options trading. That is a 7,467 contract increase from the previous week. Data from Chinese customs shows that 9.586 MMT of soybeans were imported during May, up 25% from the previous May. Specifically, the imports from the US rose 66.2% yr/yr to 1.47 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.08 1/2, unch,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.09, down 3/4 cent,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.19, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $293.60, down $0.20,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $31.61, up $0.06

Soybeans

June 23, 2017

Soybean futures are showing losses of 2 to 4 1/4 cents on Friday, after a week that has seen nothing but red. July 17 soy meal is down 80 cents , with soy oil 10 points higher in the front month. Soybean export commitments are still 18.3% larger compared to last year. They are 106% of the current WASDE forecast, compared to 98% last year and the average of 100%. The implication is that USDA sees an unusually steep decline in July and August because of South American shipments. The Argentine ag ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimate to 57 MMT from 58 MMT. Data from Chinese customs shows that 9.586 MMT of soybeans were imported during May, up 25% from the previous May. Specifically, the imports from the US rose 66.2% yr/yr to 1.47 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.02, down 2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.06 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.06 3/4, down 3 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.09, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $293.00, down $0.80

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.65, up $0.10

Soybeans

June 23, 2017

Soybean futures are currently 2 to 3 cents per bushel higher after losing 12 1/2 to 14 3/4 cents on Thursday. July 17 soy meal was down $4.10, with soy oil 30 points lower in the front month. Soybean export shipments were only 296,131 MT for the week of June 15, 39.4% lower than last week and 3.8% above last year. Soybean export commitments are still 18.3% larger compared to last year. They are 106% of the current WASDE forecast, compared to 98% last year and the average of 100%. The Argentine ag ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimate to 57 MMT from 58 MMT.

Soybeans

June 22, 2017

Soybean futures closed Thursday 12 1/2 to 14 3/4 cents in the red. July 17 soy meal was down $4.10, with soy oil 30 points lower in the front month. This morning’s Export sales report showed old crop sales of just 111,182 MT, with new crop sales at 3,766 MT. Total sales were down 82.4% from last week and 91.3% from last year. China was reported to have a minor net reduction of 1,200 MT, as new crop outstanding sales have dropped to just 55.4% of last year at this time. Don’t forget that there will be a Chinese buying team here in mid-July. Soybean export shipments were only 296,131 MT, 39.4% lower than last week and 3.8% above last year. Soy meal total sales of 132,209 MT were reported. Exports for soy meal ran 161,766 MT, down 25% from last week. Soy oil sales were at 17,334 MT, with shipments running 15,182 MT. The Argentine ag ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimate to 57 MMT from 58 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.04, down 14 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.08 1/2, down 14 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.09 3/4, down 14 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.21 1/4, down 14 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $293.80, down $4.10,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $31.55, down $0.30

Soybeans

June 22, 2017

Soybean futures are down 5 3/4 to 7 1/2 cents in the nearby contracts at midday. July 17 soy meal is $1.30 lower, with soy oil down 3 points in the front month. This morning’s Export sales report showed old crop sales of just 111,182 MT, with new crop sales at 3,766 MT. That fell well short of most analysts expectations, as total sales were down 82.4% from last week and 91.3% from last year. China was reported to have a net reduction of 1,200 MT, as new crop outstanding sales have dropped to just 55.4% of last year at this time. Don’t forget that there will be a Chinese buying team here in mid-July. Soy meal total sales of 132,209 MT were reported, which was a drop of 52.3% over last week and 29.1% from the same week a year ago. Soy oil sales were at 17,334 MT, an increase of 10.6% over last year but were down 42.8% from a week ago.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.12 3/4, down 6 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.16 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 6 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $296.60, down $1.30

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.82, down $0.03


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