AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

August 20, 2018

Soybean futures saw fractional to 1 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. Those gains were limited by rains rolling across the Midwest. Later in the afternoon, President Trump stated he does not expect much out of this week’s talks and has “no time frame” for coming to an agreement with China. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil up 31 points. Export Inspections of soybeans in the week of 8/16 totaled 639,001 MT. That was 4.5% lower than the same time of last year, but 9.9% larger than the previous week. Accumulated YTD exports are now 3.2% lower than the same time last year, as we head into the last 2 weeks of the MY. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report indicated that 91% of the US soybean crop was setting pods vs. the average of 83%. Crop ratings were down 1% to 65% gd/ex, while the Brugler500 Index lost 2 points to 367.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.81 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $328.20, down $1.90,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.54, up $0.31

Soybeans

August 20, 2018

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents in the green on Monday. Gains stem from reports that the US and China are planning a roadmap to end the trade dispute by mid-November but are being limited by rains rolling across the Midwest. Nearby soy meal is down 40 cents/ton, with soy oil up 32 points. Export Inspections of soybeans in the week of 8/16 totaled 639,001 MT. That was 4.5% lower than the same week of last year, but 9.9% larger than the previous week. Accumulated YTD exports are now 3.2% lower than the same time last year, as we head into the last 2 weeks of the MY. Analysts are expecting soybeans conditions to stay UNCH in this afternoon’s NASS report. The large spec funds in soybean futures and options added another 2,641 contracts to their net short position as of 8/14. That took their net position to -58,924 contracts.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.84 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.96, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.08, up 3 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.18 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $329.70, down $0.40

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.55, up $0.32

Soybeans

August 20, 2018

Soybean futures are trading 12 to 13 cents higher this morning. They had 4 to 5 cent losses on Friday after a late rally. Longs had 3.61% gains for the week. A little buying came late in the day on reports that the US and China were planning a roadmap to end the trade dispute by mid-November. That, of course, presumes that they will agree with each other’s proposals! Nearby US soy meal was down $4.50/ton, with soy oil up 8 points on Friday. Chinese meal futures sank 1.8% on Monday due to another African swine fever outbreak in Jiangsu. The large spec funds in soybean futures and options added another 2,641 contracts to their net short position as of 8/14. That took their net position to -58,924 contracts. Soybean export commitments are now lagging last year by 4.3%, slipping a little from last week. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 102% complete vs. the 104% normal pace. Actual exports are 94% of that number lagging average by 3%, with 4.718 MMT in unshipped sales remaining.

Soybeans

August 17, 2018

Soybean futures rallied into the close to end the day with 4 to 5 cent losses, roughly 10 cents off their lows. Traders were taking money from this week’s 3.61% gains off the table ahead of the weekend. A little buying came late in the day on reports that the US and China are planning a roadmap to end the trade dispute by mid-November. That, of course, presumes that they will agree with each other’s proposals! Nearby soy meal was down $4.50/ton, with soy oil up 8 points. The large spec funds in soybean futures and options added another 2,641 contracts to their net short position as of 8/14. That took their net position to -58,924 contracts. Soybean export commitments are now lagging last year by 4.3%, slipping a little from last week. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 102% complete vs. the 104% normal pace. Actual exports are 94% of that number lagging average by 3%, with 4.718 MMT in unshipped sales remaining.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/2, down 4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.92 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05, down 4 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.26, down 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $330.10, down $4.50,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.23, up $0.08

Soybeans

August 17, 2018

Soybean futures are mostly 9 to 10 cents in the red at midday. Traders are taking money from this week’s gains off the table ahead of the weekend. Losses are also mounted by widespread rains forecast for most of the Corn Belt. Nearby soy meal is down $4.10.ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. Soybean export commitments are now lagging last year by 4.3%, slipping a little from last week. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 102% complete vs. the 104% normal pace. Actual exports are 94% of that number lagging average by 3%, with 4.718 MMT in unshipped sales remaining.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/2, down 9 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.88, down 9 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.00 1/4, down 9 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.10 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $330.50, down $4.10

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.17, up $0.02


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